Clever advice and nonsense

PMV editor Greg Whitaker

“Nine-tenths of the existing books are nonsense and the clever books are the refutation of that nonsense," wrote long-dead British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli at some point in the distant past. He has a point though. For every article you read where ‘experts’ opine their views, very few really know what they are talking about, instead relying on speculation and hearsay.

This is the case for almost every field, where an opinion on, say, the future price of sugar due to wet weather in China is just that, if the speaker introduces ‘variables’ such as market trends, consumer preference for frosted sugar puffs over cornflakes and so on.

No where is this more true than the self-appointed czars of the environment and the economy. Over the last two years global warming has been written on endlessly, with freak weather being blamed on all manner of scenarios. Now, I’m not denying such an event is taking place, but out of the 42 million results one gets after typing ‘climate change’ into Google, how many of those authors do you think have even read the fourth IPCC report on the subject?

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FEATURED COMMENT Well put Sir! Could not have said it better myself.   3 Comments Read more comments »

On the subject of the economy, you don’t have to have a particularly long memory to recall the many talking heads that would pop up on the radio here in Dubai, speaking about how the local construction market was ‘well insulated’ from the credit crunch that was unfolding in the US and elsewhere. Despite being proved wrong, these mouths for the most part have not zipped up. Instead, some have gone as far as to say that they predicted the exact moment when it all changed over here – and as a result you should continue to listen to their ‘advice.’

Of course, such pontification is quite different compared to the practical expertise needed in our industry. You can’t argue with the solid reality of a wheel loader.

By the way, I am fully aware of the irony of writing a puff-piece full of conjecture in order to decry the practice. Disraeli also said: “The most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.” So be sure your information comes from the best sources.