Don't ask why, diversify

Jeff Roberts, Group Editor.

Napoleon Hill – father of the ‘personal success literature’ genre and presidential advisor to Woodrow Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt – once said, “Opportunity often comes disguised in the form of misfortune or temporary defeat.”

Although Hill was born in America in 1883 and most likely never travelled outside the country, his message seems to have transcended time, culture and geography to find itself alive and well in the 21st Century Middle East.

Hill’s message is the same advice my father used to give me after I’d fall off my bike, “Get up, dust yourself off, get back on and ride faster this time.”

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Well, in the wake of the credit crisis, its safe to say that the Middle East – and the rest of the world – most definitely fell off its bike. I’m very happy to say that it seems like we’re beginning the slow process of dusting ourselves off, despite economists and pundits predicting something called a ‘double-dip’ recession.

But this time, how do we ride faster? Certainly not by throwing our time, effort and fortunes into the same development schemes that proved so fragile the first time. So, how do we ride faster? The answer: diversify.

This is ‘Economics 101’ for most people familiar with personal investment. Diversification reduces risk, provides stability and, with any luck, long-term profitability...yada...yada...yada. But what I’m suggesting is diversification on a regional scale. If you look around, you’ll see its already happening.

Take Godwin Austen Johnson, for example (this month’s main Q&A). It is one of the largest and most established international practices in Dubai and yet its focus has shifted to North Africa. In fact, the practice boasts major projects in almost every country in the Maghreb as well as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

Gensler is one of the world’s largest architecture practices. Its projects span six continents, yet in the middle of the global credit crisis it closed its Dubai doors, launched an office in Abu Dhabi and has since put ‘business development’ at the forefront of its initiatives in the MENA.

At the time of writing, Gensler is responsible for a massive waterfront project (Saphira Waterfront) which spans 11km along the Moroccan coast and two major mixed-use projects in Makkah.

Regional diversification isn’t just limited to architects either. Home-grown developer Emaar made a killing on the ‘masterplanned lifestyle community’ and, after unprecedented success in Dubai, has since brought the typology to Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Syria and Turkey – to name a few.

Qatari Diar, which has been extremely insular in its business dealings in the past, has looked as far afield as Morocco, Egypt, Sudan, Syria and Yemen over the past 12 months.

And, one of the UAE’s most diverse property developers, Bukhatir Group, launched its fourth ‘Sport City’ development in Tunis in mid-2009 and is currently considering North Africa and Southeast Asia for its fifth.

Napoleon Hill encouraged his readers to look past misfortune – to cast aside what seems like defeat – to find the opportunity waiting to be seized. In much less eloquent terms, my father urged me to get back on that bike and ride faster. Whether you listen to the wisdom of my dad or Napoleon Hill, the time for action has come. Don’t ask why, diversify.