MENA power generation to rise sharply by 2015

BMI's 2010 power-gen estimate for MENA is 1,222TWh, a 4% increase

BMI report predicts steady growth in MENA power-generation sector.
BMI report predicts steady growth in MENA power-generation sector.

The MENA power generation estimate for 2010 was 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4% over the previous year, when markets were depressed by the economic slowdown, according to a new BMI report.

MENA thermal power generation in 2010 was estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region.

“We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period,” said BMI.

Saudi Arabia will account for 16.8% of MENA regional power generation by 2015, BMI said in its Saudi Arabia Power Report Q1 2011.

Saudi Arabia's thermal generation forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015, which slightly reduces the market share of thermal generation to 90.8%, due in part to environmental concerns which have led to the promotion of renewables, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation.

The Kingdom's thermal generation in 2010 was estimated at 213TWh, or 18.69% of the regional total. By 2015, the Kingdom is expected to account for 18.51% of thermal generation.

Oil was the dominant fuel for Saudi Arabia in 2010, accounting for an estimated 65% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 35%.

Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Saudi Arabia's estimated 2010 market share of 21.64% is set to ease to 21.08% by 2015.

BMI forecast real GDP growth averaging 3.15% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the 2011 growth assumption being 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 26.0million to 28.6million over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 25% and 9% respectively.

The Kingdom's power consumption was expected to increase from an estimated 176TWh in 2010 to 211TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market after system losses etc., assuming 3.6% average annual growth (2010-2015) in electricity generation.

Between 2010 and 2020, BMI forecast an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 56.2%, which is near the middle of the range for the MENA region.

"This equates to 30.5% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 19.7% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to increase from 17.6% in 2010-2015 to 22.5%, representing 44.1% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 56% between 2010 and 2020,” stated the report.

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