Despite the move to Qatarisation, compared to the other GCC nations, Qatar’s ratio of nationals to expats in private sector jobs is markedly lower.
Saudi Arabia’s nationals have a larger share of private employment than in the other GCC countries.
According to an IMF working paper – focusing on private sector employment for nationals and expatriates in the GCC region – the ratio of nationals to expats in the private sector is less than 1-to-5, in the region. “Saudi Arabia’s nationals constitute a larger share of private employment than in the other GCC countries.
“Qatar’s share is strikingly low and Kuwait’s is almost as low despite a recent rise.
“The growth rates of expatriates exceeded the nationals in three out of the five countries and overall” it stated.
Excluding the UAE, which was not covered, data sourced from five GCC countries shows that as of 2014, the total number of Qataris employed in the country’s private sector is a little more than 12,000, the lowest in the region.
With 91,000 nationals, Kuwait has the second lowest representation in the private sector, followed by Bahrain and Oman.
With a total of 16,56,000, Saudi has the biggest national presence in its private sector workforce, The Peninsula reports.
However, between 2006 and 2014, the Qatari representation in the private sector jobs grew by 248%, the highest in the region.
The IMF data shows that across the region, nationals in private sector represent just 12% of the total workforce, whereas expatriates account for 62%. Nationals in the public sector account for 22% while expatriates represent 4%.
While recent trends point to a large number of nationals entering the labour force in coming years, as the oil price drops by half, Qatar’s economic position has been impacted, reducing the potential for public sector hiring to continue at its recent pace.
Labour force projections indicate a collective GCC growth rate of almost 4.5% per year – or two million labour market entrants between 2014 and 2020.
Based on these projections, the number of private sector jobs would comprise only one-third of the entrants.
According to the research note, the GCC’s public sector hiring of estimated 4.5% per annum, would create 1.2 million public sector jobs by 2020. This would leave the share of nationals’ private-sector employment in nationals’ total employment, below 35% and barely unchanged from 2006.
Moreover, another 175,000 people would be unemployed, the report noted.
Having been a feature of GCC economies since the 1970s, public employment rose following events associated with the 2011 Arab Spring in neighbouring countries. However, the recent fast pace of public hiring is not economically viable.
Together with pay increases, the hiring burst inflated GCC public-sector wage bills to around 10% of GDP in 2014.
As shown in most GCC country staff reports and in the IMF report, GCC spending was well above optimal levels despite the large fiscal surpluses enjoyed by most of its members when oil prices averaged about $100 per barrel in 2011- 2014.
With the sharp fall in oil prices in late 2014 and early 2015, fiscal positions have weakened, and addressing the jobs shortfall through public hiring is therefore not feasible, the report noted.
